en gros : depuis aout 2006: 850 euros par mois de mensualités pdt 1 an puis 1600 euros par mois pour le reste du pret qui est a taux fixe 3.90TEG
je pense pas la revendre avant 5 ans .... sauf si je gagne le pactole au loto foot ce week end ( et je t'avouerais que je le sens bien)
montant emprunté 220000

Dans les agences du Lubéron, le téléphone n'arrête pas de sonner. La clientèle n'arrête pas de venir voir les commerciaux pour prendre des rendez vous. Les visites de maisons , jamais vu autant de demandes.
Le marché bouge alors ?
Malheureusement dans un seul sens : la vente.
Le scénario qui est en train de se dessiner chez nous, vous pouvez le suivre en direct au USA : chute des ventes d'environ 20%, le stock des propriétés à vendre en hausse de 60% comme dans la Lubéron

je n'avais pas vérifié oui Jean rech a raison ton taux est plus proche de 5 quelque chose que de 3,90 %...

Houla c'est quelle banque ?

Sur 20 ans la charge des intérêts est affolante 150.000 €...
pour un bien de 240.000 €.

au fait le prét regrgroupe 2 "sous-prêts" qui arrivent a 3.90 teg
et la banque est le CMB

Jusqu’où la hausse des taux peut entraîner l’immobilier

Les marchés financiers ne sont pas convaincus de la pertinence de la hausse des taux, à la différence des banques centrales. Deux analystes français, Philippe SIGOGNE, Stratégiste chez BFT Gestion au cours du colloque « Où va l’immobilier français ? » organisé par l’IEIF, Institut de l’Epargne Immobilière & Foncière » et Olivier Eluere, de la Direction des Etudes Economiques du Crédit Agricole dans sa dernière lettre de conjoncture, livrent leur analyse experte sur le sujet des taux des crédits immobiliers.

Les taux en pente douce
Pour Philippe Sigogne, une hausse de 3,5 % est attendue au niveau de l’Europe d’ici la fin de l’année. Les marchés estiment que ce taux restera en vigueur pendant plusieurs mois. Philippe Sigogne estime qu’il est plus probable que les taux augmentent, en raison de l’accroissement du crédit dans la zone euro. Les prêts aux résidants continuent de croître, autour de 10 % l’an. Cette situation est extrêmement déplaisante pour la BCE, dont les communiqués évoquent un risque inflationniste toujours présent.
La BCE pourrait être tentée de revenir sur sa politique accommodante. Les taux ne vont guère dépasser les 3,5 % à court terme, mais à long terme, ils dépasseront certainement les 4 ou 4,5 %.
Les taux longs sont en baisse. Ils sont restés stables, autour de 2 %, pendant plusieurs années alors
qu’ils auraient dû être plus proches de 3 ou 3,5 %. C’est ce que Philippe Sigogne appelle l’énigme des taux. On peut s’attendre à des tensions sur les taux mais ceux-ci devraient rester relativement accommodants dans les prochains mois, autour de 2 à 2,5 %.
Les anticipations de croissance pour l’Europe en 2007 varient de 1,5 à 3 %. Pourquoi de tels écarts ? Selon Philippe Sigogne, le scénario bas envisage plusieurs difficultés : un ralentissement américain lié à la baisse de l’immobilier jusqu’à 1,5 à 1 % l’an et une augmentation du taux de chômage et du taux d’épargne.

Une remontée, mais pas le nez dans la bulle
Pour Olivier Eluere, le scénario d’une bulle spéculative et d’une correction violente des ventes et des prix, comme celui observé en Ile-de-France en 1992-1995, paraît largement improbable. Le contrôle du risque par les établissements prêteurs est élevé et les ratios de créances douteuses et litigieuses (CDL) très bas.
La demande reste donc potentiellement soutenue. Mais elle bute de plus en plus sur la contrainte de solvabilité. Le taux d’effort atteint des seuils critiques et une part croissante des candidats primo accédants renonce à acheter. La demande est moins forte, se concentre sur des acheteurs à revenu plus élevé ou avec revente préalable, devient plus hésitante et plus sélective. De plus, l’investissement locatif s’essouffle, avec des taux de rendement moins attractifs et une prudence accrue sur les nouveaux produits Robien et Borloo.
Le freinage graduel va se poursuivre. La demande va continuer à s’éroder. Les taux d’effort se dégraderont encore un peu, ce qui réduira davantage la part des primo accédants, et les investissements locatifs vont se réduire légèrement.
Le taux de crédit habitat devrait remonter mais modérément, du fait de la stabilité prévue des taux à long terme et de la pression de la concurrence. La demande faiblira mais ne s’effondrera pas, grâce aux nombreux facteurs de soutien structurels.
Le principal risque est celui d’une remontée très marquée des taux, entraînant une correction baissière de la demande et des prix. Mais la probabilité d’un tel scénario paraît très limitée.

Directgestion.fr

La demande faiblira mais ne s’effondrera pas, grâce aux nombreux facteurs de soutien structurels.

If house prices fall, first-time buyers could well be hit hardest of all

By Stephen Pritchard
Published: 29 November 2006

Last week, former Government adviser David Miles became the latest in a line of economists to warn that house price growth could go into reverse.

Professor Miles, now UK chief economist at Morgan Stanley, has suggested that there could be a house price crash within the next two year, although he cautions that it is almost impossible to say when prices might start to fall. But Prof Miles believes that confidence in the housing market could drop sharply, if house price rises start to tail off.

This will be a worrying prospect for the thousands of home owners - many of them young, first-time buyers - who have stretched themselves as far as they can in order to step on to the housing ladder. Home owners who have put down little or no deposits are the most exposed, because they have little or no equity in their properties to cushion them against a downturn.

According to Moneyfacts, the financial researchers, the number of lenders offering mortgages of 100 per cent or more has grown steadily. Five lenders offer mortgages of between 102 per cent and 125 per cent of a property's value. There are a staggering 200 loans on offer that will go up to 100 per cent.

Steadily rising house prices have forced more and more buyers to borrow up to the absolute limit in order to afford the property they want; most recently, the Nationwide predicted that house prices will rise between five and six per cent next year. Understandably, buyers who delay in order to save for a deposit worry that prices will move even further out of reach.

What could I do about it if I'm hit by negative equity?

The main risk to home buyers, as well as to home owners thinking about remortgaging, is that the predictions will come true, and that prices will start to fall. If that happens in the next two years, there will have been too little time for heavily mortgaged borrowers to have built up any equity.

"House prices have risen continually over the last 11 years but this does not been the future will hold the same fortune," warns Moneyfacts' mortgage analyst Julia Harris. "So you could be trapped in a 'negative equity' situation for years to come."

If prices fall, even by a small amount, home owners could find themselves in negative equity. And given the current levels of house prices, even a small percentage fall would equate to a large loss in cash terms.

A return to the negative equity of the early 1990s would leave home owners unable to move, unless they could cover the mortgage shortfall from savings or other reserves, or through moving to a cheaper property. They might also be unable to remortgage, if negative equity means that they would have to borrow more than even the most generous lender will offer. At best, home owners with negative equity would face a narrower choice of mortgages.

What can I do now to minimise the risk?

Although a 100 per cent mortgage carries risks, a larger mortgage need not be that much riskier.

One reason is that lenders are often quite selective about who qualifies for a higher mortgage. Scottish Widows and Accord limits some of their larger loans to professionals. Other lenders have deals specifically for graduates and others who expect their incomes to rise. The Portman only allows borrowers with large loans to value to take out repayment, rather than interest-only, mortgages.

A 100 per cent plus mortgage might not even mean that a borrower ends up owing more than someone who wants to borrow 100 per cent. Some mortgage companies levy higher lending charges for larger loans.

"If you take out a 100 per cent mortgage and then add a higher lending charge to the loan, you will be borrowing 103 per cent," says Ray Boulger, of mortgage brokers John Charcol. "If you had the cash, then it's likely that you would not need the 100 per cent mortgage. You would be no worse off opting for a 103 per cent mortgage that does not levy the fees."

And, he adds, there is no clear line to cross that makes a particular level of borrowing risky: even someone who puts down a small deposit is exposed to housing market falls, although they will have access to cheaper mortgages.

Last week, former Government adviser David Miles became the latest in a line of economists to warn that house price growth could go into reverse.

Professor Miles, now UK chief economist at Morgan Stanley, has suggested that there could be a house price crash within the next two year, although he cautions that it is almost impossible to say when prices might start to fall. But Prof Miles believes that confidence in the housing market could drop sharply, if house price rises start to tail off.

This will be a worrying prospect for the thousands of home owners - many of them young, first-time buyers - who have stretched themselves as far as they can in order to step on to the housing ladder. Home owners who have put down little or no deposits are the most exposed, because they have little or no equity in their properties to cushion them against a downturn.

According to Moneyfacts, the financial researchers, the number of lenders offering mortgages of 100 per cent or more has grown steadily. Five lenders offer mortgages of between 102 per cent and 125 per cent of a property's value. There are a staggering 200 loans on offer that will go up to 100 per cent.

Steadily rising house prices have forced more and more buyers to borrow up to the absolute limit in order to afford the property they want; most recently, the Nationwide predicted that house prices will rise between five and six per cent next year. Understandably, buyers who delay in order to save for a deposit worry that prices will move even further out of reach.

What could I do about it if I'm hit by negative equity?

The main risk to home buyers, as well as to home owners thinking about remortgaging, is that the predictions will come true, and that prices will start to fall. If that happens in the next two years, there will have been too little time for heavily mortgaged borrowers to have built up any equity.

"House prices have risen continually over the last 11 years but this does not been the future will hold the same fortune," warns Moneyfacts' mortgage analyst Julia Harris. "So you could be trapped in a 'negative equity' situation for years to come If prices fall, even by a small amount, home owners could find themselves in negative equity. And given the current levels of house prices, even a small percentage fall would equate to a large loss in cash terms.

A return to the negative equity of the early 1990s would leave home owners unable to move, unless they could cover the mortgage shortfall from savings or other reserves, or through moving to a cheaper property. They might also be unable to remortgage, if negative equity means that they would have to borrow more than even the most generous lender will offer. At best, home owners with negative equity would face a narrower choice of mortgages.

What can I do now to minimise the risk?

Although a 100 per cent mortgage carries risks, a larger mortgage need not be that much riskier.

One reason is that lenders are often quite selective about who qualifies for a higher mortgage. Scottish Widows and Accord limits some of their larger loans to professionals. Other lenders have deals specifically for graduates and others who expect their incomes to rise. The Portman only allows borrowers with large loans to value to take out repayment, rather than interest-only, mortgages.

A 100 per cent plus mortgage might not even mean that a borrower ends up owing more than someone who wants to borrow 100 per cent. Some mortgage companies levy higher lending charges for larger loans.

"If you take out a 100 per cent mortgage and then add a higher lending charge to the loan, you will be borrowing 103 per cent," says Ray Boulger, of mortgage brokers John Charcol. "If you had the cash, then it's likely that you would not need the 100 per cent mortgage. You would be no worse off opting for a 103 per cent mortgage that does not levy the fees."

And, he adds, there is no clear line to cross that makes a particular level of borrowing risky: even someone who puts down a small deposit is exposed to housing market falls, although they will have access to cheaper mortgages.